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Will Facebook be undermined by Wave?

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No, Wave is focused on collaboration while Facebook is purely for socialising

To my mind Wave is about getting stuff done while Facebook is about hanging out. Facebook is actually terrible for managing projects whereas Wave would be great; well, a lot better than existing email and Facebook at any rate.

Facebook is designed for nosiness, social parading and general frivolous socialising. Wave could do some of that but it just doesn't seem to designed for it. From what I understand, waves are like emails in that you specifically decide who they are shared with, but you also have the option to make waves completely public. This is very different to Facebook where everything is, by default, shared with your entire network but nothing is completely private.

To me, the private-between-a-select-few or completely-public model is well suited for collaboration (you work together to build something and then publish it) and the second is suited for socialising (you want your friends to be generally aware of what you're doing, but only if they're interested - you don't want to specifically contact them about it; and also you don't want Joe Public, Sam the Boss and Grandma Doesn't-Appreciate-Drunken-Photos to know what you're up to. Again, Wave is suited for focused collaboration and Facebook for vague socialising.

The only area I see real overlap between Wave and Facebook is organising events. So I think Wave may undermine Facebook's usefulness as an event-organiser, but that's not exactly going to kill it.

I think Wave would only be a competitor to Facebook if the third party apps part of Wave really took off crazily. If that happens I can barely imagine the possibilities. But I think it's unlikely and I doubt Google is betting on it.

No, Facebook has too much of a lead

People have such large established networks on Facebook. Most people will have no reason to move to Wave to do the things they can already do on Facebook.