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Will Google Wave be a success?

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No, it's too noisy, I don't know where to look

 

Yes, because it makes communication more organized

Everyone uses email and it always turns into a mess. Especially if there are many people involved, it's difficult to keep track of all the replies-to-replies-to-replies.

Google Wave's editing functionality will solve this because it means people can update old 'emails' instead of creating new ones. Much more concise.

The instant messaging function will also be great. Communication will no longer be needlessly split between two completely different application. This is convenient for accessing old communication and generally keeping things organized and accessible.

The overall effect is that Google Wave will make things faster, so people who keep to "email 1.0" will be left behind.

If another company made Wave, it would too hard to get adoption. But because it's Google , they will get adoption

YouTube, Twitter, Google Search – they're all based on really simple, compelling concepts. You can't explain Wave in a sentence. If Wave was made by just another startup company, nobody would give them the time of day - after 10 seconds of Wave explanation, people would just switch off. But because it's Google, people are lining up to sit through a one hour twenty minute lecture explaining every detail in minute detail!

Because of that, I think Wave will succeed. They alone have the pulling power to explain something like this.

Yes, early adopters will lead the way, and other people will realize they're missing out

The interface is not confusing, it's just novel. Early adopters will use it, get it, and rave about it, and then other people will follow because they feel like they're missing out. And then people will nag their mums to get it so they can share pictures better. And then everyone will have it.

It's true that many organizations will think 'we have email, why do we need this?' but then other organizations will understand the benefits and adopt it across their organizations. Then business pundits will comments about the difference it's making and late adopters will feel the need to get it as well. I'm sure that, back in the day, most people didn't see the need for computers.

Depends...

do you mean:
a) will Wave be adopted as a standard—Wave being the server, the standards they use, etc
b) will Google Wave become the main client to use Wave?
If the standard isn't adopter by default Google Wave will likely be the client, however until Google (or a third party) bridge the various communication technologies into Wave I feel there's little value to the consumer. Chicken, or egg?

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