This is the answer to Will Google Wave be a success?

Depends...

do you mean:

a) will Wave be adopted as a standard—Wave being the server, the standards they use, etc

b) will Google Wave become the main client to use Wave?

If the standard isn't adopter by default Google Wave will likely be the client, however until Google (or a third party) bridge the various communication technologies into Wave I feel there's little value to the consumer. Chicken, or egg?