This is the answer to Will Google Wave be a success?

Yes, early adopters will lead the way, and other people will realize they're missing out

The interface is not confusing, it's just novel. Early adopters will use it, get it, and rave about it, and then other people will follow because they feel like they're missing out. And then people will nag their mums to get it so they can share pictures better. And then everyone will have it.

It's true that many organizations will think 'we have email, why do we need this?' but then other organizations will understand the benefits and adopt it across their organizations. Then business pundits will comments about the difference it's making and late adopters will feel the need to get it as well. I'm sure that, back in the day, most people didn't see the need for computers.